China tightens control and panel price rebounds: +4.9% in H2 2025
The OPIS benchmark for TOPCon ≥600 W modules stands at $0.086/W (FOB China), with a cumulative increase of 4.88% since the start of the second half of 2025. The rebound coincides with increased MIIT control in China to reduce low-cost sales and reinforce quality, which could lead to domestic minimum prices. In Europe, DDP prices remain around €0.092/W, while interest in HJT grows despite its premium. These movements matter for Spain and Portugal: they affect purchase planning, kit configuration, and customer proposals.
What is happening
- China tightens supervision: the MIIT is driving regulation, limits on low-cost competition, and sector discipline. There is speculation about floor prices (~CNY 0.75/W).
- Europe stable: TOPCon ≥600 W is around €0.092/W DDP; HJT is gaining traction due to efficiency, with a moderate premium.
- USA: DDP increases and lower inventory put short-term pressure; 2026 will bring a split due to FEOC rules.
- Forwards: Q4-2025/Q1-2026 stable or slightly up; Chinese tenders suggest a floor of 0.70–0.71 CNY/W.
Why it matters for ES/PT
For integrators and distributors on the peninsula, the risk is an upward drift in Q4-2025/Q1-2026 and more sensitive delivery times. In residential, the impact is mitigated with well-sized kits; in industrial/C&I, it may affect fixed price offers and competitiveness versus PPAs.
What to do (operational checklist)
- Secure critical stock of TOPCon panels (and a beta in HJT) for committed projects in 60–120 days.
- Update budgets with index review clauses (OPIS/CMM) and expire in ≤30 days.
- Diversify origin (EU/SEA) and technology mix (TOPCon/HJT) to mitigate temporary premium.
- Optimize kits: adjust string power and actual availability, without oversizing structure or BOS.
- Communicate value (annual production + warranty) to offset the exclusive focus on €/Wp.
Related resources and products
Explore our categories and compatible components to ensure availability and performance:
Methodological note
The price figures and trends come from OPIS weekly updates published by pv magazine USA and refer to August 29, 2025.
“The Chinese Module Marker rose 1.18% this week to $0.086/W, up 4.88% since the start of H2 2025.” — OPIS via pv magazine USA. Source
